Management Report
2. Economic Outlook
The global economy should continue to recover over the course of the year. However, the expiration of public stimulus programs, the largely completed inventory adjustments and the planned savings measures to reduce budget deficits suggest that the pace of global economic expansion could slow down as the year progresses. Robust growth will presumably continue to be seen in the emerging markets, with Asia remaining the fastest-growing region. By contrast, comparatively moderate growth is expected in Europe. It is anticipated that growth in the United States will decline in the second half of the year.
We expect growth in the pharmaceutical market in 2010 to be in the mid-single digits. This expansion is likely to be driven increasingly by emerging countries. By contrast, we believe that growth will be weaker in the established markets such as the United States and the major European countries. Expansion will most likely be further restrained by various reforms to the health care systems in key markets. For the consumer health markets, we expect positive growth in the mid-single digits for this year as a whole.
We anticipate that the world market for crop protection products will shrink in 2010. The seed market will likely expand year on year thanks to growth in the area of genetically modified seed.
The main customer industries of MaterialScience (automotive, electrical/electronics, construction, furniture) will continue to benefit from the recovery of the global economy. Only the construction industry in the United States and a number of western European countries will probably continue to suffer noticeably from the effects of the real estate market crisis.